Month: April 2015

Back of an envelope notes

Back-of-an-envelope notes based on PA declaration times and May 2015’s seat calculator:

  • 3am on 8 May: we’ll know how SNP are doing when Glasgow constituencies declare. If SNP take Central from LAB, they’re having a good night.
  • 3.30am: LAB should take Lincoln. If they don’t, they’re in trouble. If they do by a big margin, it’s in the bag.
  • 4am: How big any LibDem meltdown is should be clear from Ceredigion. Also clues as to what LibDem voters have decided to do instead.
  • 4am: The same for Scotland – Orkney & Shetland should be fascinating for any SNP surge vs any LibDem collapse.
  • 5am: If the Tories hold Rossendale and Darwin, they’ve got the pick of coalition partners.
  • 5am: Rochester & Strood is the UKIP bellwether. We’ll know if they have had a great night or a Greens-in-1989-EP night, or a damp squib.